BIMHandbook Chapter 8 The Future:Building with BIM
By Chuck EastmanPaul TeicholzRafael SacksKathleen Liston
Summary：BIM is not a thing or a type of software but a human activity that ultimately involves broad process changes in construction.A wide variety of owners demand BIM use. Many large owners have developed contract terms and detailed guides for their design and construction service providers. New skills and roles are developing. Almost universally positive return on investment values have been reported by both design fi rms and construction contractors, with those actively measuring return on investment reporting that it exceeded their initial estimates. A survey conducted in early 2007 found that 28 percent of the U.S . AEC industry was using BIM tools; that number had grown to 49 percent by 2009. In 2007, only 14 percent of users surveyed considered themselves to be expert or advanced. By 2009, 42 percent did.In the period from 2007 to 2010, contractors were the fastest adopters of BIM.
Introduction
BIM is changing the way buildings look, the way they function, and the ways in which they are built. Throughout this book, we have intentionally and consistently used the term BIM to describe an activity (building information modeling), rather than an object (as in building information model). This refl ects our belief that BIM is not a thing or a type of software but a human activity that ultimately involves broad process changes in construction. In this chapter, we aim to provide two perspectives on the future of building using BIM: where BIM is taking the AEC industry, and where the AEC industry is taking BIM.We begin with a short introduction describing the conception and maturation of BIM until the present (2010). We then provide our perspectives on what the future holds. The forecast is divided into two timeframes: a fairly confident forecast of the near future that looks ahead to the next five years (until 2015) and a more speculative long-term forecast looking ahead to the year 2020. The near-term forecast reflects current market trends—many of which are discussed in earlier chapters of this book—and then reviews current research. The long-term forecast relies on analyses of likely drivers and a fair amount of intuition. Beyond 2020, potential advances in hardware and soft-ware technologies as well as business practices, make it impossible to predict anything reliably, and so we refrain from speculation.
After 2020, construction industry analysts will reflect, with the benefit of hindsight, on the process changes that will have occurred by 2020. They will likely find it difficult to distinguish definitively between such influences as BIM, lean construction, and performance-driven design. In the absence of each other, these techniques could, theoretically, flourish on their own. Their impacts, however, are complementary in important ways, and they are being adopted simultaneously. Practical examples of their synergies are apparent in some of the case studies in the following chapter (such as Sutter Medical Center and the Crusell Bridge project). Researchers have cataloged some 55 positive interactions between BIM and lean construction (Sacks et al. 2010). We address some of these synergies in Sections 8.2 and 8.3.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIM UP TO 2010
BIM technology crossed the boundary between research concept and viable commercial tool in the first years of the past decade, and it is well on the way to becoming as indispensable to building design and construction as theproverbial tee square or hammer and nail. The transition to BIM, however, is not a natural progression from computer-aided drafting (CAD). It involves a paradigm shift from drawing to modeling. Modeling provides different abstrac-tions and model development processes, leading to new ways of designing. These are still being sorted out. BIM also facilitates—and is facilitated by—a concurrent shift from traditional competitive project delivery models to more collaborative practices in design and construction.
The concept of computer modeling for buildings was first proposed when the earliest software products for building design were being developed (Bijl and Shawcross 1975; Eastman 1975; Yaski 1981). Progress toward BIM was restricted first by the cost of computing power and later by the successful widespread adoption of CAD. But idealists in academia and the construction software industry persisted, and the research needed to make BIM practical continued to move forward. The foundations for object-oriented building prod-uct modeling were laid throughout the 1990s (Gielingh 1988; Kalay 1989; Eastman 1992). Parametric 3D modeling was developed both in research and by software companies for specific market sectors, such as structural steel. Current BIM tools are the fulfillment of a vision that has been predicted, by many, for at least three decades.
BIM technology will continue to develop rapidly. Just as the concepts of how BIM tools should work drove their technological development, a renewed vision of the future of building with BIM—emphasizing workflows and con-struction practices—is now needed. Readers who are considering the adoption of BIM tools for their practices and educators teaching future architects, civil engineers, contractors, building owners, and professionals, should all under-stand not only the current capabilities but also the future trends and their potential impacts on the building industry.
CURRENT TRENDS
Market and technology trends are good predictors of the near-term future in any field, and BIM is no exception. The trends observed reveal the potential direction and influence BIM will have in the construction industry. The follow-ing paragraphs outline the trends that influence our forecast. They are summarized in the sidebar “BIM Process and Technology Trends.”
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文献题目：BIM Handbook——The Future:Building with BIM
BIM手册——未来：用BIM进行建设
BIM Handbook Chapter 8 The Future:Building with BIM
By Chuck Eastman Paul Teicholz Rafael Sacks Kathleen Liston
Summary：BIM is not a thing or a type of software but a human activity that ultimately involves broad process changes in construction.A wide variety of owners demand BIM use. Many large owners have developed contract terms and detailed guides for their design and construction service providers. New skills and roles are developing. Almost universally positive return on investment values have been reported by both design fi rms and construction contractors, with those actively measuring return on investment reporting that it exceeded their initial estimates. A survey conducted in early 2007 found that 28 percent of the U.S . AEC industry was using BIM tools; that number had grown to 49 percent by 2009. In 2007, only 14 percent of users surveyed considered themselves to be expert or advanced. By 2009, 42 percent did.In the period from 2007 to 2010, contractors were the fastest adopters of BIM.
Introduction
BIM is changing the way buildings look, the way they function, and the ways in which they are built. Throughout this book, we have intentionally and consistently used the term BIM to describe an activity (building information modeling), rather than an object (as in building information model). This refl ects our belief that BIM is not a thing or a type of software but a human activity that ultimately involves broad process changes in construction. In this chapter, we aim to provide two perspectives on the future of building using BIM: where BIM is taking the AEC industry, and where the AEC industry is taking BIM.
We begin with a short introduction describing the conception and maturation of BIM until the present (2010). We then provide our perspectives on what the future holds. The forecast is divided into two timeframes: a fairly confident forecast of the near future that looks ahead to the next five years (until 2015) and a more speculative long-term forecast looking ahead to the year 2020. The near-term forecast reflects current market trends—many of which are discussed in earlier chapters of this book—and then reviews current research. The long-term forecast relies on analyses of likely drivers and a fair amount of intuition. Beyond 2020, potential advances in hardware and soft-ware technologies as well as business practices, make it impossible to predict anything reliably, and so we refrain from speculation.
After 2020, construction industry analysts will reflect, with the benefit of hindsight, on the process changes that will have occurred by 2020. They will likely find it difficult to distinguish definitively between such influences as BIM, lean construction, and performance-driven design. In the absence of each other, these techniques could, theoretically, flourish on their own. Their impacts, however, are complementary in important ways, and they are being adopted simultaneously. Practical examples of their synergies are apparent in some of the case studies in the following chapter (such as Sutter Medical Center and the Crusell Bridge project). Researchers have cataloged some 55 positive interactions between BIM and lean construction (Sacks et al. 2010). We address some of these synergies in Sections 8.2 and 8.3.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIM UP TO 2010
BIM technology crossed the boundary between research concept and viable commercial tool in the first years of the past decade, and it is well on the way to becoming as indispensable to building design and construction as theproverbial tee square or hammer and nail. The transition to BIM, however, is not a natural progression from computer-aided drafting (CAD). It involves a paradigm shift from drawing to modeling. Modeling provides different abstrac-tions and model development processes, leading to new ways of designing. These are still being sorted out. BIM also facilitates—and is facilitated by—a concurrent shift from traditional competitive project delivery models to more collaborative practices in design and construction.
The concept of computer modeling for buildings was first proposed when the earliest software products for building design were being developed (Bijl and Shawcross 1975; Eastman 1975; Yaski 1981). Progress toward BIM was restricted first by the cost of computing power and later by the successful widespread adoption of CAD. But idealists in academia and the construction software industry persisted, and the research needed to make BIM practical continued to move forward. The foundations for object-oriented building prod-uct modeling were laid throughout the 1990s (Gielingh 1988; Kalay 1989; Eastman 1992). Parametric 3D modeling was developed both in research and by software companies for specific market sectors, such as structural steel. Current BIM tools are the fulfillment of a vision that has been predicted, by many, for at least three decades.
BIM technology will continue to develop rapidly. Just as the concepts of how BIM tools should work drove their technological development, a renewed vision of the future of building with BIM—emphasizing workflows and con-struction practices—is now needed. Readers who are considering the adoption of BIM tools for their practices and educators teaching future architects, civil engineers, contractors, building owners, and professionals, should all under-stand not only the current capabilities but also the future trends and their potential impacts on the building industry.
CURRENT TRENDS
Market and technology trends are go
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