附录A 外文文献
Background
The pension deficit has been rapidly enlarging for more than a decade. The gap was 35.7 billion yuan in 2000, and it surged to 57.6 billion yuan in 2005, 70 billion yuan in 2011, and exceeded 100 billion in 2012. It is astonishingly expected to overpass 150 billion yuan. 1 The shortage of pension funds is closely related to the growth of aging population. From 2012 to 2013, Chinese aging population over 60 increased from 194million to 202 million, accounting for 14.8 % of the entire population. 2 On the one hand, the growth of the aged population has increased the governmentrsquo;s spending on pensions. On the other hand, the dwindling young population has limited the revenue of pensions. If the retirement age is set at a low level, it might trigger a pension crisis . Compared with European and US retirement ages, which are usually between 65 and 67, Chinarsquo;s retirement ages—men at 60 years old and women at 50 years old—are apparently at low level. 3 In order to avoid the deterioration of the pension crisis, adjusting the retirement age becomes necessary . Since the average life span of the Chinese has extended from 71 to 76 years old in last 10 years, the feasibility of rising the retirement age has also been promoted.4 Whether people are fulfilled with their jobs determines whether they are in favor of the retirement delay. And whether they feel fulfilled depends on their human capital and productivity. The blue-collar workers usually have fewer human capital and lower productivity. They feel less fulfilled with their jobs as their human capital depreciates and are inclined to depart from the labor market at a relatively young age. According to a poll carried by Peoplersquo;s Daily Online, 68.6 % of the respondents voted against rising the retirement age.5 But the high-skilled workers with more human capital and higher productivity, as their job fulfillment and wage rate are in a positive correlation with the growth of their human capital, tend to retire old. For example, the same poll showed that 31.4 % of the respondents voted for rising the retirement age.5 Thus, a differentiated approach to delaying retirement, based on different human capital and productiveness, will get more endorsement. Besides the differences in human capital, the efficiency of distributing labor forces and the employment pressures should be taken into consideration in choosing a better plan to delay retirement. If the oversupplied low-skilled manpower delay to retire, the labor market will not be obviously impacted by a crowing-out effect. The workers contribute a certain percentage of their salaries to the pensionrsquo;s fund pool every month. Therefore, the funding source of pensions will not be affected. Thus, if we can extend the retirement age according to the status of demand and supply of different labor forces, the pension crisis can be more properly dealt with. However, in recent years, Chinarsquo;s unemployment rate has exceeded the internationally accepted alarm level of 4 %.6 From 2008 to 2013, the unemployment rates are 4.2, 4.3, 4.1, 4.1, and 4.1 %.7 From now to 2035, there will be a long period when China can enjoy demographic dividend. Labor supply during the 12th 5-year plan will surpass 900 million, so there will not be a shortfall of labor forces. Relevant data indicate that there will be 25 million people entering the urban labor market every year, but only 12 million can land jobs, which means there will be 10 million newly added people jobless in the labor market every year.8 Given the already tough and deteriorating employment situation, the crowding effect in employment should be given full consideration when choosing a proper plan to extend the retirement age . Since a differentiated approach to delaying retirement can cause smaller impacts than a uniformed approach, it should be served as a primary strategy.So far, there is a heated debate among people from all walks of life especially the academia about which is a better plan of delaying retirement. After considering thediversity of human capital and the disequilibrium of labor force, this paper conduct an elaborate mathematical analysis and simulation comparison between different policy options of the retirement delay to study their capabilities of closing a large pension deficit, their crowing-out effect, and political feasibility. This could serve as a reference for the government to reform the pension system.
Literature review
Since China reformed its pension system into a combination of social pooling with individual accounts in 1995, the pension deficit is getting increasingly larger. From 2010 to 2012, the deficit was 1.7 trillion yuan, 2.2 trillion yuan, and 2.9 trillion yuan, respectively. 91011 The deficit in 2013 is expected to be astonishingly 18 trillion yuan.12 Thedistressful financial record leaves Chinese authorities no wiggle room but to reform the system. A proposal made by Tsinghua University shows that China will become a super aging society in 2030, in which one social security retiree will be supported by two workers on average. In order to fix the shortage of pension funds, the proposal believes it is necessary to extend the retirement age to 65 years old. Zheng Bingwen, Director of Center for International Social Security Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, supports that it is a routine method adopted by the international community to deal with an aging population and an unavoidable way to close the pension gap. Yet, Cai Fang, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, holds another view. He believes the retirement delay should not be a one-size-fits-all policy. A uniformed approach to extend the retirement age will put into a disadvantageous p
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附录A 外文文献
Background
The pension deficit has been rapidly enlarging for more than a decade. The gap was 35.7 billion yuan in 2000, and it surged to 57.6 billion yuan in 2005, 70 billion yuan in 2011, and exceeded 100 billion in 2012. It is astonishingly expected to overpass 150 billion yuan. 1 The shortage of pension funds is closely related to the growth of aging population. From 2012 to 2013, Chinese aging population over 60 increased from 194 million to 202 million, accounting for 14.8 % of the entire population. 2 On the one hand, the growth of the aged population has increased the governmentrsquo;s spending on pensions. On the other hand, the dwindling young population has limited the revenue of pensions. If the retirement age is set at a low level, it might trigger a pension crisis . Compared with European and US retirement ages, which are usually between 65 and 67, Chinarsquo;s retirement ages—men at 60 years old and women at 50 years old—are apparently at low level. 3 In order to avoid the deterioration of the pension crisis, adjusting the retirement age becomes necessary . Since the average life span of the Chinese has extended from 71 to 76 years old in last 10 years, the feasibility of rising the retirement age has also been promoted.4 Whether people are fulfilled with their jobs determines whether they are in favor of the retirement delay. And whether they feel fulfilled depends on their human capital and productivity. The blue-collar workers usually have fewer human capital and lower productivity. They feel less fulfilled with their jobs as their human capital depreciates and are inclined to depart from the labor market at a relatively young age. According to a poll carried by Peoplersquo;s Daily Online, 68.6 % of the respondents voted against rising the retirement age.5 But the high-skilled workers with more human capital and higher productivity, as their job fulfillment and wage rate are in a positive correlation with the growth of their human capital, tend to retire old. For example, the same poll showed that 31.4 % of the respondents voted for rising the retirement age.5 Thus, a differentiated approach to delaying retirement, based on different human capital and productiveness, will get more endorsement. Besides the differences in human capital, the efficiency of distributing labor forces and the employment pressures should be taken into consideration in choosing a better plan to delay retirement. If the oversupplied low-skilled manpower delay to retire, the labor market will not be obviously impacted by a crowing-out effect. The workers contribute a certain percentage of their salaries to the pensionrsquo;s fund pool every month. Therefore, the funding source of pensions will not be affected. Thus, if we can extend the retirement age according to the status of demand and supply of different labor forces, the pension crisis can be more properly dealt with. However, in recent years, Chinarsquo;s unemployment rate has exceeded the internationally accepted alarm level of 4 %.6 From 2008 to 2013, the unemployment rates are 4.2, 4.3, 4.1, 4.1, and 4.1 %.7 From now to 2035, there will be a long period when China can enjoy demographic dividend. Labor supply during the 12th 5-year plan will surpass 900 million, so there will not be a shortfall of labor forces. Relevant data indicate that there will be 25 million people entering the urban labor market every year, but only 12 million can land jobs, which means there will be 10 million newly added people jobless in the labor market every year.8 Given the already tough and deteriorating employment situation, the crowding effect in employment should be given full consideration when choosing a proper plan to extend the retirement age . Since a differentiated approach to delaying retirement can cause smaller impacts than a uniformed approach, it should be served as a primary strategy.So far, there is a heated debate among people from all walks of life especially the academia about which is a better plan of delaying retirement. After considering the diversity of human capital and the disequilibrium of labor force, this paper conduct an elaborate mathematical analysis and simulation comparison between different policy options of the retirement delay to study their capabilities of closing a large pension deficit, their crowing-out effect, and political feasibility. This could serve as a reference for the government to reform the pension system.
Literature review
Since China reformed its pension system into a combination of social pooling with individual accounts in 1995, the pension deficit is getting increasingly larger. From 2010 to 2012, the deficit was 1.7 trillion yuan, 2.2 trillion yuan, and 2.9 trillion yuan, respectively. 91011 The deficit in 2013 is expected to be astonishingly 18 trillion yuan.12 The distressful financial record leaves Chinese authorities no wiggle room but to reform the system. A proposal made by Tsinghua University shows that China will become a super aging society in 2030, in which one social security retiree will be supported by two workers on average. In order to fix the shortage of pension funds, the proposal believes it is necessary to extend the retirement age to 65 years old. Zheng Bingwen, Director of Center for International Social Security Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, supports that it is a routine method adopted by the international community to deal with an aging population and an unavoidable way to close the pension gap. Yet, Cai Fang, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, holds another view. He believes the retirement delay should not be a one-size-fits-all policy. A uniformed approach to extend the retirement age will put into a disadvantageous pos
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