全球变暖下中国东部夏季三种降雨模式概念预测模型的重建外文翻译资料

 2023-02-18 22:28:06

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Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

With the influence of global warming, the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s. Although El Nintilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability, its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed, and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened. This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China. On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer, as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases, i.e. before and after the significant global warming (1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012, respectively), we concluded that (1) Under different inter decadal backgrounds, the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency, but in the latter phase of the global warming, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was on the strong side, the position of which was in the south, and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active, while the polar vortex extended to the south, and meridional circulation intensified. This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III, and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I, thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China. (2) In the former phase, the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences. The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) was great, and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective. In the latter phase, this identification ability decreased, while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern increased, and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased. Based on the new inter decadal climate background, this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection indexes. The fitting effect was satisfying, though it is necessary to be further tested.

global warming, climate change, Three Rainfall Patterns, ENSO, NPO, PNA, prediction model

Because the frequency of climatic disasters in China is relatively high and drought and flood disasters have greatly frustrated Chinarsquo;s economic construction and social development, the monthly or quarterly prediction of drought and flood climate, especially drought and flood trend occurring during the summer flood season, has become an important task for Chinese atmospheric scientists (Chou and Xu, 2001; Huang al., 2006; Huang and Wang, 1992; Huang al., 1993; Feng al., 2013). From a nationwide perspective, summer rainfall prediction has focused mainly on the north-south position of the rain band, i.e., the prediction of rainfall pattern (Shi al., 1997). Typically, the rain band in the summer advances from the south to the north, but under complicated influence of many factors, the advance speed of the rain band will accelerate, or the rain band will remain in a certain area for a long period, thus forming different rainfall patterns (Wei, 2007). Since the 1970s, many scholars have performed a large number of useful research works on the summer rainfall patterns of China, which mainly involve three aspects, i.e. classification of rainfall patterns, climate change characteristics, and prediction.

The classification of the main rain band in summer directly affects the prediction level (Wang al., 1998). As early as the beginning of the 1980s, Liao al.,(1981) had classified the rain band in summer of eastern China into three patterns (hereinafter referred to as the “Three Rainfall

Patterns”), which are respectively described as follows: Pattern I, the northern pattern, of which the main rain band is located in the Yellow River basin and the region to the north, while the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin has little rainfall in a wide range; Pattern II, the central pattern, of which the main rain band is located between the Yellow River and Yangtze River, and its rainfall center is usually in the Huaihe River basin; and Pattern III, the southern pattern, of which the main rain band is located in the Yangtze River basin or regions south of the Yangtze River, while the large regions north of the Huaihe River and southeastern coastal areas have little rainfall. This classification has many advantages: first, there is a limited classification of rainfall patterns, which can seize the main features of summer rainfall and is conducive to pattern analysis and prediction; second, the rainfall patterns are connected with the position of the rain belt from north to south. The atmospheric circulation for the Three Rainfall Patterns has significant differences, thus containing clear climatic significance. In addition, this classification also highlights the areas in which major flooding may occur. Therefore, this classification has

been used in forecasting service during flood season by the National Climate Center (NCC) ever since its establishment. Based on the basic concepts and standards of the Three Rainfall Patterns, Wei and Zhang (1988) have objectified the classification. Research has shown that summer rainfall patterns in eastern China undergo clear inter-annual and inter-decadal variation (Zhao al., 2008). Before the 1980s, Pattern I was the majority pattern. After that

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