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Research on the Measurement and Its Influencing Factors of the Technical Complexity of Agricultural Products Export in China
翻译：中国农产品出口技术复杂性测度及其影响因素研究
Yong Bai
Abstract This research chooses the export technology complexity for measuring the export technology level of agricultural products, by measuring the export technology complexity of agricultural products in ten countries from 2002 to 2016, and verifies the influencing factors of the agricultural productsrsquo; export technology complexity in China. The results show that the export technology level of Chinese agricultural products is on the rise as a whole, but compared with developed countries, it still has obvious disadvantages. There are obvious differences between the export technology complexity of various agricultural products; the export technology level of horticultural products and aquatic products is higher, and the export technology of bulk agricultural products, livestock products, beverages, tobacco products and other agricultural products is lower. In terms of influencing factors, the level of economic development and agricultural technology has a significant positive impact on the technical complexity of agricultural exports, while the degree of agricultural production specialization has no significant impact on the technical complexity of agricultural exports.
Keywords Complexity index · Technical complexity of agricultural products export · Economic development level · Agricultural technology level
翻译：
摘要 本研究选取出口技术复杂度作为衡量农产品出口技术水平的指标，通过对10个国家从2002到2016年农产品出口技术复杂度的测算，验证了中国农产品出口技术复杂度的影响因素。结果表明，中国农产品出口技术水平总体呈上升趋势，但与发达国家相比仍存在明显的劣势。各类农产品出口技术复杂度存在明显差异；园艺产品和水产品出口技术水平较高，大宗农产品、畜产品、饮料、烟草等农产品出口技术水平较低。在影响因素方面，经济发展水平和农业技术水平对农产品出口的技术复杂度有显著的正向影响，而农业生产专业化程度对农产品出口的技术复杂度没有显著的影响。
关键词 复杂性指数·农产品出口技术复杂性·经济发展水平·农业技术水平
1 Introduction
As an important product related to national food security, residentsrsquo; livelihood security and basic needs of social development, the development of agricultural products export is the main content of international trade negotiations. Since the accession to the WTO, the export of agricultural products has made rapid development, and the scale of export has been expanding. The agricultural products export has increased from 18.02 billion US dollars in 2002 to 79.71 billion US dollars in 2018, which means an increase of 342.34%. But meanwhile, since 2004, Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products has been in deficit for 15 years. In 2018, trade deficit in agricultural products in China was US$57.38 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0%. In addition, agricultural products are obviously affected by the macro-economy and influenced by the financial crisis in 2008. In recent years, agricultural products export trade fluctuates violently in China, and the growth rate is significantly reduced. In 2009, it has a negative export growth. It can be seen that with the continuous change of the international economic environment and the increasingly fierce competition in the international market, although Chinese agricultural product export has achieved certain extent development, the pressure of international environmental market competition is also more severe. Therefore, how to improve the overall relative export quality of agricultural products has become the key to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Since Hausmann and Rodrik [1] put forward the concept of export technology complexity index, this index has become the main method for measuring the technology content of export trade in China. Huang and Zhang [2], Zhao and Peng [3], Dong and Yang [4] measured the technical complexity of Chinese export of goods and analyzed the influencing factors; Zhang and Zhang [5], Li et al. [6], Zhang and Yin [7], Liu [8] measured the technical complexity of Chinese export of manufactured goods; Zhang [9] and Cheng et al. [10] measured the technical complexity of Chinese service export and analyzed the influencing factors; Wang and Zhu [11], Li et al. [12] measured the export complexity of Chinese high-tech industry; Yin and Tian [13], Wu and Wang [14], Wang et al. [15] measured the Chinese agricultural productsrsquo; export complexity and compared it with other countries. Although the existing researches have measured the complexity, there are few studies on the influencing factors of the complexity of Chinese agricultural exports. In view of this, based on the measurement of technology level, this paper conducts a systematic empirical test on the influencing factors of technology level of agricultural export. This research will have positive significance to promoting the transformation of Chinese agricultural trade mode, optimizing the structure, enhancing the competitiveness of agricultural products and promoting the sustainable economic growth.
翻译：
1 介绍
农产品出口作为关系国家粮食安全、居民生活安全和社会发展基本需要的重要产品，发展农产品出口是国际贸易谈判的主要内容。入世以来，我国农产品出口取得了快速发展，出口规模不断扩大。农产品出口从2002年的180.2亿美元增长到2018年的797.1亿美元，增长342.34%。但与此同时，自2004年以来，中国农产品对外贸易连续15年出现逆差。2018年，中国农产品贸易逆差573.8亿美元，同比增长14.0%。此外，农产品受宏观经济影响明显，受2008年金融危机影响明显。近年来，我国农产品出口贸易波动剧烈，增速明显回落。2009年，中国出口出现负增长。可见，随着国际经济环境的不断变化和国际市场竞争的日益激烈，我国农产品出口虽然取得了一定的发展，但国际环境市场竞争的压力也更加严峻。因此，如何提高农产品出口的整体相对质量成为我国农业可持续发展的关键。自从Hausmann和Rodrik[1]提出出口技术复杂性指数的概念以来，该指数已成为衡量我国出口贸易技术含量的主要方法。黄、张[2]，赵、彭[3]，董、杨[4]测量了中国出口商品的技术复杂度并分析了影响因素；张、张[5]，李等[6]，张、印[7]，刘[8]测量了中国出口制成品的技术复杂度；张[9]和程等[10]测量了技术复杂度中国服务出口的复杂性及其影响因素分析；王和朱[11]，李等人[12]测算了中国高技术产业的出口复杂性；尹和田[13]，吴和王[14]，王等人.[15]测算了中国农产品的出口复杂性并与其他国家进行了比较。虽然已有的研究对农产品出口的复杂性进行了测度，但对影响我国农产品出口复杂性的因素的研究却很少。鉴于此，本文在技术水平测度的基础上，对农产品出口技术水平的影响因素进行了系统的实证检验。本文的研究对促进我国农产品贸易方式的转变，优化农产品贸易结构，提高农产品竞争力，促进经济可持续增长具有积极意义。
2 Measurement of Technical Complexity
2.1 Research Methods
In the study of export technology level, Chinese scholars mostl
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