The impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation to
our economy and the foreign trade
Introduction
This paper analyzes the causes of RMB exchange rate appreciation, expounds the beneficial effects, adverse effects on our countrys economic and foreign trade, and puts for-ward the countermeasures to the effects. Present situation of Chinese foreign trade surplus continues to expand, which is caused by a variety of reasons. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate on Chinas economy, foreign trade import and export volume and structure have a series of effects, only to take positive and effective measures to make the economy of our country and export enterprises to obtain the sustainable and stable development.
1. Reasons for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate
1.1 Chinese and foreign interest rate difference
Interest rate policy is an important tool of monetary policy. The rate of relative height will affect the capital flow direction is one of the important ways, high interest rates will stimulate the international capital inflow, and reduce its outflow of funds. Thus affecting the scale of international trade, make the difference of interest rate on exchange rate influence the trend of continuous improvement.
1.2 Money supply situation
RMB exchange rate and Chinas money supply substantially positive correlation, due to the deepening of reform and opening up, foreign investors can not only make use of cheap Chinese labour, more optimistic about Chinas huge domestic market. Therefore, foreign investment increased substantially. Due to tightening of monetary policy, the RMB fund is quite nervous, the entry of foreign capital and foreign exchange, so appeared apparent oversupply, resulting in the trend of Renminbi rmb.
1.3 International balance of payments and foreign exchange reserve
The formation of foreign exchange market and the international trade and investment is not divided, international balance of payment is a countrys foreign economic activities of the various payment sum. Under floating exchange rates, the market supply and demand to determine the exchange rate changes, therefore international payments deficit will lead to the devaluation of the currency, the foreign currency appreciation, namely the exchange rate rise. Conversely, international payments surplus caused a decline in foreign exchange rates.
1.4 Economic growth
A countrys economic take-off stage, due to the low level of productivity, economic development performance for the extensive mode of operation, and thus their own currency exchange rate decreased, i.e. A countrys economy is relatively mature stage, consumer demand as income and growth, but the growth that consumes demand to catch the output supply growth, so in the period of rapid economic growth, supply relative consumption demand, so as to have a downward pressure on prices.
2. The exchange rate of RMB appreciation on Chinas economy and foreign trade favourable effects
2.1 Be helpful for Chinese enterprises to 'go out'
The appreciation of the renminbi means that Chinese enterprises to invest abroad cost relatively drops than before, which makes them to lower the cost of the establishment of multinational companies.So it is beneficial to the Chinese enterprises to 'go out', to create a truly international competitiveness of Chinese transnational corporation.
2.2 Will help improve trade conditions
The appreciation of the renminbi, export prices higher, you can use less export products in return for their own needs a variety of products. Export profit increases ceaselessly, can improve our terms of trade.
2.3 Conducive to reduce external debt debt service pressure
The rise in the renminbi exchange rate, outstanding debt servicing required the amount of local currency is correspondingly reduced, to a certain extent so as to reduce the burden of external debt.
2.4 Conducive to promoting the transformation of foreign trade growth mode
The appreciation of the renminbi has contributed to Chinas foreign trade growth mode from extensive original shift quality and cost-effective intensive, this will bring the improvement of export structure, encourage technological innovation, sustainable development.
2.5 Conducive to lower import costs
After revaluation, the price of imported goods will have the same magnitude of decline, reducing our cost of imports and import fees paid. The appreciation of the renminbi will make large transaction costs of imports, so as to improve the profit situation of related industries, to economy construction is very favorable.
2.6 Be helpful for improving the environment of attracting foreign investment
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, can make have foreign-funded enterprises in China increased profits, so as to enhance the confidence of investors, to further increase investment or investment; the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will attract a lot of foreign capital into China s capital market, indirect investment proportion will be increased further.
3. The exchange rate of RMB appreciation on Chinas economy and foreign trade adverse effects
3.1 The influence of Chinese enterprise and many integrated competition ability of the industry
The appreciation of the renminbi will lead to certain technical content and added value is low, poor management, high cost and low efficiency of export enterprises lose in the price in the international market competitive advantage, eventually had to be eliminated.
3.2 Increasing empl
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浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响
本文分析了人民币汇率升值的原因，阐述了人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的有利影响、不利影响，并针对人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响，提出了对策。
中国目前的现状是外贸的顺差额继续扩大，这主要是由于多种原因造成的。人民币汇率的升值将对我国经济、外贸进出口的总额及其结构产生一系列影响，只有采取积极有效的措施才能使我国经济及出口企业获得持续稳定发展。
1. 人民币汇率升值的原因
1.1 中外利率差异情况
利率政策是一个国家重要的货币政策工具。利率的相对高低会影响资本流动的方向就是其中一个重要的方式，较高的利率水平会刺激国际资本流入，并减少本国的流出资金。从而影响国际贸易规模，使利率差异对汇率走势的影响力不断提高。
1.2 货币供应量状况
人民币汇率与中国货币供应量大体上成正相关，由于改革开放的深入，国外投资者不但可以利用中国廉价的劳动力，更看好中国庞大的国内市场。因此，外商投资大幅增加。由于紧缩性的货币政策，人民币资金相当紧张，外资进入又多，所以出现了明显的外汇供大于求，造成人民币升值趋势。
1.3 国际收支状况和外汇储备情况
外汇市场的形成与国际贸易和投资是分不开的，国际收支是一国对外经济活动中的各种收支的总和。在浮动汇率制下，市场供求决定汇率的变动，因此国际收支逆差将引起本币贬值，外币升值，即外汇汇率上升。反之，国际收支顺差则引起外汇汇率下降。
1.4 经济增长情况
一国经济起飞阶段，由于生产力水平低，经济的发展表现为粗放式经营，从而本国的币值下降，即汇率的上升。一国经济较为成熟阶段,消费者的需求虽然随着收入而增长，但消费需求的增长赶不上产出供给的增长，故在经济快速增长时期，供给相对消费的需求旺盛，从而对物价有向下的压力。
2.人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的有利影响
2.1 有利于中国企业“走出去”
人民币升值意味着中国企业到海外投资的成本相对来说比以前下降，这使得他们能以较低的成本在国外建立跨国公司。所以有利于中国企业更好地“走出去”，造就出中国真正具有国际竞争力的跨国公司。
2.2 有利于改善贸易条件
人民币升值以后，出口产品的价格相对提高，就可以用较少的出口产品换回本国所需要的各种产品。出口利润不断增加，就可以改善我国目前的贸易条件。
2.3 有利于减轻外债还本付息压力
人民币汇率的上升，未偿还外债还本付息所需本币的数量相应减少，从而在一定程度上减轻了外债负担。
2.4有利于推动外贸增长方式的转变
人民币升值有助于我国外贸增长方式从原来的粗放型转向高质量和高效益的集约型，这会带来出口结构的改善，激励企业技术创新，实现可持续发展。
2.5有利于进口成本的降低
人民币升值以后，进口商品的价格将会发生相同幅度的下降，降低我国进口商品的成本和在进口环节支付的费用。人民币升值将使大宗交易的进口成本降低，进而改善相关行业的赢利状况，对经济建设非常有利。
2.6有利于改善吸引外资的环境
人民币汇率升值，可使已在华投资的外资企业的利润增加，从而增强投资者的信心，促使其进一步追加投资或进行再投资；人民币汇率升值将吸引大量外资进入中国的资本市场，间接投资比重将进一步增加。
3.人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的不利影响
3.1 影响我国企业和许多产业的综合竞争力
人民币升值会导致某些技术含量与附加值低、管理不善、成本高且效益低的出口企业失去在国际市场的价格竞争优势，最终只好淘汰出局。
3.2 增加就业压力
人民币升值将抑制或打击出口，最终将影响到就业。在当前中国就业形势极其严峻的情况下，人民币汇率升值将可能恶化就业形势。
3.3 我国的农业将面临更大的挑战
人民币升值将阻滞我国农产品贸易出口增长的步伐，进口将明显增加，对我国农业生产将造成冲击，影响农民增收。农产品 进出口贸易可能发生逆转，由顺差变成逆差。
3.4 影响金融市场的稳定
中国金融市场发展相对滞后的情况下，人民币升值将大量短期资本通过各种渠道，流入资本市场的逐利行为、易引发货币和金融危机，将对中国经济持续健康发展造成不利影响。
3.5 削弱我国外贸出口增长
人民币升值，中国制造业在全球的竞争力可能会逐渐消失，极易发生制造业向国外转移。人民币币值的提升，出口企业为维持一定的利润，出口单位产品的外币价格将有所提高，不利于出口持续扩大和产品在国际市场上占有率的提高。
3.6 出口增长受到制约 ，给出口企业带来损失
人民币升值后，如果我国出口商品以外币表示的价格不变，则要求出口商品以人民币表示的价格下降，这样，我国出口量不会受到影响，但我国企业的利润却下降了。
3.7 不利于我国吸引外资
人民币升值使加工贸易为主的外商企业的出口成本增加，从而使得加工贸易型的外商投资下降。这都将影响到外商投资企业投资、利润再投资的规模及产业本地化的进程，不利于我国加工贸易产业的持续发展、升级。
4.针对人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响，提出的对策
4.1 大力开拓国际市场
为了未来出口贸易的长远发展，除了继续巩固和深入开拓传统的美国、日本、欧盟市场之外, 企业还应该积极寻觅并开拓新的目标市场，如非洲、东盟等潜力巨大的市场，推动市场多元化,扩大企业出口量，给出口企业带来新的利润来源。
4.2 缓解人民币汇率升值的压力
我们可以通过调整对外贸易地理结构来减轻对美国市场的依赖。针对资本流入所带来的压力，在继续鼓励外资流入。针对外汇储备迅速增长所带来的压力，我们可以采取措施适当控制其增长速度,为渐进式调整人民币汇率水平打下基础。
4.3 提高产品质量，打造自主品牌
为了提高出口产品在国际市场上的竞争力，我国出口企业应对人民币升值的另一关键措施就是实现产品升级，打造自主品牌，从以价格优势竞争转为以质量和品牌等非价格优势参与国际竞争。
4.4 改变出口贸易增长方式
把新技术、新能源、新材料等高技术渗透到传统优势产业当中去，使我国出口产品由劳动密集型、资源密集型转变为技术含量高、加工程度深、高附加值的新型产品。并要大力发展高新技术产业。
4.5 适时调整汇率水平与汇率制度
我们要认识到，成功地调整人民币汇率政策，对于未来的宏观经济稳定、贸易品部门与非贸易品部门产业间的平衡发展以及中国经济可持续增长都具有深远而积极的意义。而这一点，有待于政府采取果断措施，消除升值预期。
4.6 降低生产和交易成本
出口企业可通过加强管理，理顺内部流程，降低管理成本；利用人民币升值，增加从国外进口原材料，降低材料成本；直接与外商联系或充分利用互联网发展电子商务，减少出口的中间环节，提高交易的效率，降低交易成本。
文章出处：作者：亚伦·约翰逊 《浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响》2009.08
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