COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY
ANDREW SIMPSON
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Abstract
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) have emerged as a promising technology that uses electricity to displace petroleum consumption in the vehicle fleet.However, there is a very broad spectrum of PHEV designs with greatly-varying costs and benefits. In particular, battery costs, fuel costs, vehicle performance attributes and driving habits greatly-influence the relative value of PHEVs. This paper presents a comparison of the costs (vehicle purchase costs and energy costs) and benefits (reduced petroleum consumption) of PHEVs relative to hybrid-electric and conventional vehicles. A detailed simulation model is used to predict petroleum reductions and costs of PHEV designs compared to a baseline midsize sedan. Two power train technology scenarios are considered to explore the near-term and long-term prospects of PHEVs. The analysis finds that petroleum reductions exceeding 45% per-vehicle can be achieved by PHEVs equipped with 20 mi (32 km) or more of energy storage. However, the long-term incremental costs of these vehicles are projected to exceed US$8,000, with near-term costs being significantly higher. A simple economic analysis is used to show that high petroleum prices and low battery costs are needed to make a compelling business case for PHEVs in the absence of other incentives. However, the large petroleum reduction potential of PHEVs provides strong justification for governmental support to accelerate the deployment of PHEV technology.
Key words Plug-in Hybrid；Hybrid-Electric Vehicles；Battery；Secondary Battery
1 Introduction to Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles have recently emerged as a promising alternative that uses electricity to displace a significant fraction of fleet petroleum consumption [1]. A plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle (PHEV) is a hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) with the ability to recharge its electrochemical energy storage with electricity from an off-board source (such as the electric utility grid). The vehicle can then drive in a charge-depleting (CD) mode that reduces the systemrsquo;s state-of-charge (SOC), thereby using electricity to displace liquid fuel that would otherwise have been consumed. This liquid fuel is typically petroleum (gasoline or diesel), although PHEVs can also use alternatives such as biofuels or hydrogen. PHEV batteries typically have larger capacity than those in HEVs so as to increase the potential for petroleum displacement.
1.1 Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Terminology
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles are characterized by a “PHEVx” notation, where “x” typically denotes the vehiclersquo;s all-electric range (AER) – defined as the distance in miles that a fully charged PHEV can drive before needing to operate its engine. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) uses the standard Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS) to measure the AER of PHEVs and provide a fair comparison between vehicles [2]. By this definition, a PHEV20 can drive 20 mi (32 km) all-electrically on the test cycle before the first engine turn-on. However, this all-electric definition fails This work has been authored by an employee or employees of the Midwest Research Institute under Contract No.DE-AC36-99GO10337 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.
1.2 The Potential of Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
The potential for PHEVs to displace fleet petroleum consumption derives from several factors. First, PHEVs are potentially well-matched to motoristsrsquo; driving habits – in particular, the distribution of distances traveled each day. Based on prototypes from the last decade, PHEVs typically fall in the PHEV10-60 range [3]. Figure 1 shows the US vehicle daily mileage distribution based on data collected in the 1995 National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) [4]. Clearly, the majority of daily mileages are relatively short, with 50% of days being less than 30 mi (48 km). Figure 1 also shows the Utility Factor (UF) curve for the 1995 NPTS data. For a certain distance D, the Utility Factor is the fraction of total vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) that occurs within the first D miles of daily travel. For a distance of 30 mi (48 km), the utility factor is approximately 40%. This means that an all-electric PHEV30 can displace petroleum consumption equivalent to 40% of VMT, (assuming the vehicle is fully recharged each day). Similarly, an all-electric PHEV60 can displace about 60%. This low-daily-mileage characteristic is why PHEVs have potential to displace a large fraction of per-vehicle petroleum consumption.
However, for PHEVs to displace fleet petroleum consumption, they must penetrate the market and extrapolate these savings to the fleet level. A second factor that is encouraging for PHEVs is the success of HEVs in the market. Global hybrid vehicle production is currently several hundred thousand units per annum [5]. Because of this, electric machines and high-power storage batteries are rapidly approaching maturity with major improvements in performance and cost having been achieved. Although HEV components are not optimized for PHEV applications, they do provide a platform from which HEV component suppliers can develop a range of PHEV components.
Finally, PHEVs are very marketable in that they combine the beneficial attributes of HEVs and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) while mitigating their disadvantages. Production HEVs achieve high fuel economy, but they are s
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COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY
ANDREW SIMPSON
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Abstract
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) have emerged as a promising technology that uses electricity to displace petroleum consumption in the vehicle fleet.However, there is a very broad spectrum of PHEV designs with greatly-varying costs and benefits. In particular, battery costs, fuel costs, vehicle performance attributes and driving habits greatly-influence the relative value of PHEVs. This paper presents a comparison of the costs (vehicle purchase costs and energy costs) and benefits (reduced petroleum consumption) of PHEVs relative to hybrid-electric and conventional vehicles. A detailed simulation model is used to predict petroleum reductions and costs of PHEV designs compared to a baseline midsize sedan. Two power train technology scenarios are considered to explore the near-term and long-term prospects of PHEVs. The analysis finds that petroleum reductions exceeding 45% per-vehicle can be achieved by PHEVs equipped with 20 mi (32 km) or more of energy storage. However, the long-term incremental costs of these vehicles are projected to exceed US$8,000, with near-term costs being significantly higher. A simple economic analysis is used to show that high petroleum prices and low battery costs are needed to make a compelling business case for PHEVs in the absence of other incentives. However, the large petroleum reduction potential of PHEVs provides strong justification for governmental support to accelerate the deployment of PHEV technology.
Key words Plug-in Hybrid；Hybrid-Electric Vehicles；Battery；Secondary Battery
1 Introduction to Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles have recently emerged as a promising alternative that uses electricity to displace a significant fraction of fleet petroleum consumption [1]. A plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle (PHEV) is a hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) with the ability to recharge its electrochemical energy storage with electricity from an off-board source (such as the electric utility grid). The vehicle can then drive in a charge-depleting (CD) mode that reduces the systemrsquo;s state-of-charge (SOC), thereby using electricity to displace liquid fuel that would otherwise have been consumed. This liquid fuel is typically petroleum (gasoline or diesel), although PHEVs can also use alternatives such as biofuels or hydrogen. PHEV batteries typically have larger capacity than those in HEVs so as to increase the potential for petroleum displacement.
1.1 Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Terminology
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles are characterized by a “PHEVx” notation, where “x” typically denotes the vehiclersquo;s all-electric range (AER) – defined as the distance in miles that a fully charged PHEV can drive before needing to operate its engine. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) uses the standard Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS) to measure the AER of PHEVs and provide a fair comparison between vehicles [2]. By this definition, a PHEV20 can drive 20 mi (32 km) all-electrically on the test cycle before the first engine turn-on. However, this all-electric definition fails This work has been authored by an employee or employees of the Midwest Research Institute under Contract No.DE-AC36-99GO10337 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.
1.2 The Potential of Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
The potential for PHEVs to displace fleet petroleum consumption derives from several factors. First, PHEVs are potentially well-matched to motoristsrsquo; driving habits – in particular, the distribution of distances traveled each day. Based on prototypes from the last decade, PHEVs typically fall in the PHEV10-60 range [3]. Figure 1 shows the US vehicle daily mileage distribution based on data collected in the 1995 National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) [4]. Clearly, the majority of daily mileages are relatively short, with 50% of days being less than 30 mi (48 km). Figure 1 also shows the Utility Factor (UF) curve for the 1995 NPTS data. For a certain distance D, the Utility Factor is the fraction of total vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) that occurs within the first D miles of daily travel. For a distance of 30 mi (48 km), the utility factor is approximately 40%. This means that an all-electric PHEV30 can displace petroleum consumption equivalent to 40% of VMT, (assuming the vehicle is fully recharged each day). Similarly, an all-electric PHEV60 can displace about 60%. This low-daily-mileage characteristic is why PHEVs have potential to displace a large fraction of per-vehicle petroleum consumption.
However, for PHEVs to displace fleet petroleum consumption, they must penetrate the market and extrapolate these savings to the fleet level. A second factor that is encouraging for PHEVs is the success of HEVs in the market. Global hybrid vehicle production is currently several hundred thousand units per annum [5]. Because of this, electric machines and high-power storage batteries are rapidly approaching maturity with major improvements in performance and cost having been achieved. Although HEV components are not optimized for PHEV applications, they do provide a platform from which HEV component suppliers can develop a range of PHEV components.
Finally, PHEVs are very marketable in that they combine the beneficial attributes of HEVs and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) while mitigating their disadvantages. Production HEVs achieve high fuel economy, but they are s
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