Some considerations regarding the international real estate market – present and future predictions
Ion Anghela,*, Anca Maria Hristeaa
aThe Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana,1st, 010374, Romania
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the situation of the real estate market worldwide, to identify the main characteristics that influence the decision to invest, to find the correlation between the real estate market and the financial one and to present the most recent estimations regarding the future evolution of the international real estate market. The financial crisis that began in the second half of the last decade created imbalances in all the fields of the economic and social life and provoked very interesting mutations. The international real estate marked was confronted with important changes of rhythm, as dimensions and structures, as well as intervention levers. Some effects of the generalized economic crisis such as: the growth of the unemployment rate, the reduction of the purchasing power or the intensification of the migration process of the active population have deepen the gaps between the rhythms of the dynamics of the real estate investments at a national level and they led to the most unexpected decisions. In the last several years, the imbalances between the financial market and the monetary market generated instabilities at a world scale and speculative policies, that in some countries accentuated the uncertainties and they delayed the start towards economic revival, and in other countries they constituted strong points in redefining future strategies for development. From a geographical point of view, the new map of the real estate markets will offer a completely different from the one that existed until 2007. A new generation of “Asian tigers” looks to dominate the real estate market and countries like Qatar, Chile or India will define themselves as area of maximum interest for the real estate investors.
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Asociatia Grupul Roman de Cercetari in Finante Corporatiste
Keywords: real estate market, investment property, price, transaction, value.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 40-213-191-900.
E-mail address: ion.anghel@cig.ase.ro.
2212-5671 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Asociatia Grupul Roman de Cercetari in Finante Corporatiste
doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01520-8
1. Introduction
In the last two decades, the real estate market, just like all the global economic segments, was confronted with important mutations, under the aspect of dimension and structure and under the aspect of the intervention levers that in a moment or another have triggered real revolutions. The internationalization of the national economies, the liberalization of the circulation of the work force, the permanent redefining of the monetary and fiscal policies, the increasing of the role of the direct foreign investments or the changing of the consumers’ preferences are just a few landmarks that have shaped during the years a certain profile of the real estate market. This market is conditioned in a crucial manner by the state of health of the financial market. Without a healthy financial system, in which the governments play a decisive role in creating and maintaining it, it is difficult to mobilize the economies or to budget the capitals in an efficient manner (Stiglitz, 1999). In the last twenty years, the globalization of the financing has a significant contribution to the economic growth at a global level. Still, the globalization phenomenon has negative consequences as well, because a zones imbalance allows the spreading of the crisis throughout the whole global financial system. The current crisis emphasized the need for new global governance, an economic one, in order to limit the duration and the magnitude of the recession, and a monetary-financial one, in order to prevent or, at least, to limit the future crisis (Levy-Lang A,
2009).
The international annual reports in this field emphasize the fact that in the last ten years we witness an important diversification of the portfolio for real estate investments and its actors. The emergence of new segments of investors, with innovative state of the art strategies has revolutionized profoundly the real estate industry and it has relaxed, from a financial point of view, the real estate market for investments in an uneven manner. Even so, the financial crisis persists and there is evidence that in some regions it has become more frequent and more grisly (Caprio and Klingebiel 1997). Considered, on the one hand, the main author of the triggering of the global economic crisis, and, on the other hand, a support pillar in the revival of the economic growth, the real estate market is not just an economic pretence, but a reality in the past and future in defining the global tendencies of the worldwide economy. The real estate investments are a challenge for all the parties that are involved:
• The bidder, in his quality of builder or owner of the real estate, because he is the purpose of the business
itself through which it is expected a gain with a multiplier effect on
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